Week 8
Probability and Bayes Thinking
Probability, conditional probability, Bayes theorem, and uncertainty.
Learning goals
- Basic probability
- Independent and dependent events
- Conditional probability
- Bayes theorem
- Real decision examples
Suggested classroom flow
| Session | Focus | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | Concept introduction and guided examples | Notebook or script |
| Day 2 | Hands-on lab and teacher walkthrough | Working code |
| Day 3 | Practice tasks and discussion | Assignment draft |
| Day 4 | Assessment and mini project | Submission |
Mini project
Spam Detection Concept Simulator
Outcome for the week: students should finish with usable code, a short explanation, and at least one visual or result artifact.
Quick MCQ preview
Q1. P(A|B) means?
Explanation: P(A|B) is conditional probability.
Q2. The probability of a fair coin landing heads is?
Explanation: Fair coin heads probability is 0.5.
Q3. Bayes theorem is useful for?
Explanation: Bayes updates belief after observing evidence.